I think I did this last year and got razed, but since we are all waiting for the Dakar to start and could care less about New Years Eve, let's put out some Dakar predictions. Here are mine.

Robby's Finish -Top 3 if no breakdowns longer than 40 min. At least 3 stage wins. I think third year cars are the sweet spot and a top three heck top 5 this year would be great.

Winner if not Robby - Unfortunately Nassar because I don't think even he can break those Mini's.

Peugeot Debut - Win some stages but break downs hurt them. Oh and Cyril sees Coma broke down on his bike and runs him over since Cyril is complete a-hole.

Other Stuff -
- Live chat breaks and everyone complains.
- People complain about no reports from TOG. Everyone defends TOG.
- Tracking on Dakar.com sucks and we all go to http://trackingdakar.nl/ and still complain.
- People will not stop talking about Gordini #2.
- Everyone will call the HST Gordini a Hummer and it will make us all mad.
- Something will break and some backyard mechanic will question why the hell Robby developed the car that way, or have some duct taped way to fix it.
- We will all dream of the day we get to go down and follow the Dakar. My bucket list item (need the cash and the bike skills) - http://www.rideadv.com/motorcycle-tours/special-events-offers-in-mo...
- I will try to figure out how I am going to follow the Dakar like I want to during one of the busiest two weeks I have ever had work wise.

What do you guys have? Would love to hear TOG's about what he expects from the Planeteers.

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Here goes my 2 cents worth---I think that RG will win 4-5 stages and finish in the top 5 in 10-11 stages. I think RG will either win this year or finish 2nd. They were able to test the Gordini in Arizona in the summer and I think they have it figured out. You take time and watch the Dakar special and you see how committed and hands on RG is. The attention to detail, his drive and focus and his raw driving ability are going to come together at this years Dakar and he is going to do the unthinkable---win or finish 2nd as a true privateer versus big-deep money sponsored teams. Can't wait to follow this year

Robby will do well if the equipment holds, at least three stage wins.
The Race 2 Recovery guys will finish because they have the most determination.
Laia Sanz will continue to impress.
I want this guy to win a stage on the bikes, CHUNCHUNGUPPE SHIVASHANKAR SANTOSH (IND), just so the commentators will have to pronounce his name.

I dont think anyone can know how any of the teams are going to do. But I can assure you the "Marathon Stage" 7 & 8 are going to be what separates the contenders from the rest of the field. There has been quite a bit of discussion on RDC as to how the ASO is going to run this Marathon Stage and who would benefit from it. A few Dakar Vets like Darren Skilton and Will Higman have both chimed in on the discussion.

For those who dont know what I'm talking about read this;

The Dakar tests competitors and their vehicles in extreme endurance. The marathon stages, where drivers cannot use their assistance teams, are a particular test of their ability to independently manage their mechanics. This year, cars and trucks, which have not taken part in a marathon stage since 2005, will have to tackle this additional difficulty.

Split over two days, a marathon stage involves some of the competitors spending the night in an isolated bivouac. The vehicles are taken into a closed area, where only help between competitors is authorised. Despite the technical challenge which this constraint represents, the drivers also enjoy a different, highly convivial atmosphere. In Uyuni, it will be the car teams which will spend a night apart, followed by the motorcyclists and quad bikers the next day. The truck category will have its own dedicated bivouac in the middle of the Atacama Desert.

To make organisation of the marathon stages possible, a new system has been set up at the heart of the extended stay in Iquique. So, on 11th January, three races will take place on three different routes and in two countries. This meant there was also a need to incorporate staggered rest days for the motorcyclists and quad bikers.

So with this said you will have to pack everything with you. You want a spare axle, you better carry it in the car. You want a sleeping bag, you carry it with you. Who services the cars between stages 7 & 8? The drivers do! This is where RG will have a huge leg up on the competition. But if the Race Support Trucks are part of this car bivouac then the teams with on track race support will have the advantage, as those truck crews could and would act as the mechanics for the car teams. This would leave RG out as he does not have his own in Race Support truck and he would be dependent on the "For Rent" support truck he has rented space in. Typically these trucks are hours behind the other race trucks as they are also on the track supporting other teams who have hired them for support.

So watch for Stages 7 & 8 to be game changers in the 2015 Dakar Rally! After the Marathon Stages we will have a better idea as to who the real front runners are.

Great post. Thank you.

I don't see the trucks as having the same bivouac on this stage.
From the route km. description;
10/1 Iquique Uyuni (Car) Liaison 396 SS 321 total 717
Marathon (Truck) Liaison 101 SS 335 total 436
11/1 (Car) Uyuni Iquique Liaison 24 SS 781 total 805
(Truck) Liaison 0 SS 271 total 271

And from the route description above from NIKAL;
The truck category will have its own dedicated bivouac in the middle of the Atacama Desert.
I'm not saying this is what will happen, simply pointing out what ASO says will happen.

The big question is, will ALL Truck classes have their own bivouac, or will the "In Race" Assistance Service Trucks be part of the Car bivouac? Because if a car has trouble and is towed in, it typically is by one of the Assistances Service Trucks and that truck would need to drive to the car bivouac.

The trucks are the only class to have two classes each with their own agenda. You have the full race trucks and you have the In Race Assistance trucks. Then you have the support trucks (Like RG's Frieghtliner) that follow along the route and are stage at the Bivouacs.

that being said,we need to see what reg's come out of the meeting.There could also be a completely segregated biv.which would negate the T4 advantage

Nice post. And very good points as well. Thanks.

As you guys say the one thing that Robby has over the competition is that he is the lead designer and engineer on the car. The guy knows his onions that’s for sure! Hopefully we will get some black and white clarification soon whether or not the T4 fast assistance trucks will be allowed to intermix resources with the race car in the bivouac during the marathon stage. Either way Robby will be fine because he knows better than most how to save the equipment when he needs to.

Happy New Year!

Just to be clear on my point, i'm looking at the km.'s they are running on stages 7 and 8. I need to double check, however I believe the trucks will not make it to Uyuni from Iquique by running only 436 km. as listed here - http://netstorage.lequipe.fr/ASO/dakar/2015/parcours/parcours-km-UK...

Great post. I was bummed when I heard that car #2 didn't make it as the leading teams will switch all kinds of parts either broken or just as a precaution from their support cars to the team leaders. the Minis have no end of options. If Robby can sneak through the Marathon stages without any serious ill effects from having limited spares available that will be a great relief. The other cars will be able to risk it more knowing they have significant resources awaiting them.

That said, Robby clearly knows how to fix his car better than the rest which is essential in a one car team.
I agree with others, just get through stage one, try to be in the mix at the marathon stages. Happy new year to everyone, stay safe, gas on RG

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